It’s that time of year again when the urge to predict the future is only mildly tempered by the knowledge that much of what is predicted is based on things which are either already happening or are complete wild cards where their non-occurrence can be rationalised away at the end of the year!  Nonetheless, the field of resilience thinking is fertile ground for development in 2014, and so here are my thoughts on some of the issues, topics and emerging trends that are likely to be discussed in 2014, and ones I hope to talk about in more detail as the year progresses.

1. Value chain thinking connects resilience to the business. “Value chain” is a term which can evoke mixed feelings among the receiving party but in 2014 the reluctance to use such a buzzword-laden term will recede because it is actually a great way of providing a compelling narrative to the resilience practice.  Value chain thinking connects the organisation with its supply chain partners and most importantly the customer.  It helps to solve the perennial challenge of measuring the value contribution of resilience-building activities because the key performance indicators are already there – rather than talk about performance dips, delays and increased cost of working, value can be expressed in terms of how a company’s cash-to-cash cycle is improved or impacted, for example.

2. Progress is made on making the link between corporate resilience and sustainability.  While some may consider that sustainability and corporate responsibility are part of value chain thinking, I think it’s useful to keep them separate for the sake of clarity.  For me, sustainability and Corporate Responsibility relate to “externalities”, factors which historically businesses did not have to consider in the costs of doing business.  These external costs to a firm are typically born by society in the form of pollution, health and welfare costs etc.   While progress will prove to be uneven, firms will look at how they can support the communities, especially where domestic business environment lacks political will or economic capacity because it helps to secure their value chain.

3. Assurance models get reformed.  Certificates and periodic audits don’t cut the mustard in the environment of extended supply chains as we have seen in 2013 in many countries including Bangladesh.    As someone wise once said to me: “Assurance reporting will tell you how complete your plans and approaches are relative to the specification, but they will not help assess the value of the activity”.

4. Big data meets risk management.  Traditional approaches to risk assessment are living on borrowed time.  While (unstructured) Big Data can help in crisis management and identifying signals of impending risk events, finding ways to share existing structured data among the resilience community would also help.  Just consider how many companies maintain incident management databases and supplier performance information.  Consider also how much insight is trapped inside a .pdf document in your organisation!

5. Business Continuity Management (BCM) looks beyond traditional risk events.  I’m looking forward to seeing some case studies that don’t end with a building evacuation or DR site activation. Too much of BCM is based around non-business events.  No one wants the epithet “the department of unlikely events”.

6. But tension with Crisis Management (CM) increases…while BCMers debate how to elevate the discipline, those of a crisis management persuasion will feel that they need their own home to reflect the much broader range of risk events that they need to tackle and strategic level of their discipline.   Unfortunately, Crisis Management has its own challenges in positioning crisis communication and crisis management; accommodating the perspectives of PR-people and ex-military types within the same church will be a challenge in its own right.

7. A clearer view on “resilience as opportunity” will develop.  There is still much work to be done to position the value of resilience practice.  The opportunity side of being resilient is not limited to being able to deliver when others affected by the same incident cannot.  It is much more about applying the thinking to other business problems such as unexpected peaks in demand and new ways of working.

8. Insolvency practice becomes an entry point for BCM to manage financial vulnerability.  This one might seem a little obscure but insolvency procedures are not just about liquidation and winding up businesses.  They are first and foremost about trying to recover a stressed business because that is the best way of getting a return for creditors.  The banking sector has already recognised this with living wills developed under Bank Recovery and Resolution Plans.  BCMers have played their part in developing these plans but this path has a lot of potential – the process requires a great understanding of the business and it’s incredibly time-sensitive.  But equally, BCMers can learn from other disciplines such as insolvency practitioners (accountants and lawyers typically) to develop their own.

9. Risk-Adjusted Decision Making enters the Management Lexicon (hopefully, in a much jauntier form).  Here’s an area which is far easier to talk about than actually do.  Qualitatively, it makes full sense but when it comes to quantitative models it becomes very difficult.  However, smart people are working on concepts such as “Total Cost of Ownership+Risk” and so watch this space as people put a figure on the value of risk mitigation beyond the heuristics often seen.

10. Talking comes back into fashion.  By “talking” I mean that people are recognised as the foundation of a resilient organisation, rather than systems and technology.  Smart organisations will seek to redesign their business such that people feel connected to the organisation, its mission and values.  They will be even be encouraged to develop bonds with co-workers and leaders. IT and the need for compliance have in many ways become barriers to effective resilience.  I think there’s a lot of opportunity in this area of “resilient by design”.